๐ŸŽฐ Value betting guide - Smart Betting Tools by RebelBetting

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Value betting is the most significant concept related to sports betting. Essentially, if you implement value betting, you would stake only when there is a gap.


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What is Value Betting?

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Finding value in sports betting is something that many people talk about, but few understand. This post breaks it all down for you and may help you win.


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Week 0: Getting started -- My Value Betting Journey from $1k to $2k

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In the context of sports betting, value can be either positive or negative. Positive value exists when the probability of a wager winning is greater than the probability.


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sports betting strategies - betting strategy ( Value betting )

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Finding value in sports betting is something that many people talk about, but few understand. This post breaks it all down for you and may help you win.


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PROFIT FROM SPORTS BETTING STRATEGIES - VALUE BETTING

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Finding value in sports betting is something that many people talk about, but few understand. This post breaks it all down for you and may help you win.


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Find Value Betting Selections in 4 Easy Steps.

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Value is a common phrase used in financial investment and has the same meaning in sports betting - if a selection's probability of occurring is less than it should.


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Guide To Find Value Bets

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In a similar way, if a sports bettor can find enough value bets they will win in the long run. The importance of odds. Value is all about finding the.


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Value Betting Postflop - Poker Quick Plays

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Finding value in sports betting is something that many people talk about, but few understand. This post breaks it all down for you and may help you win.


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MARGINS, ODDS & VALUE - Things you need to know - Sports Betting Lab

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If you're just starting out in sports betting, you may from time to time hear more experienced punters refer to ' the value'. It's common to hear a veteran sports.


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How To Calculate Expected Value (Worked Examples)

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At least in the beginning of your betting career, it's a good idea to specialise in particular sports or leagues. And it's a good idea to do so in a sport or league youโ€‹.


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Value Betting and Bluffing in Poker (aka Value Bet vs. Bluff)

Imagine that the two teams were to play 10 games. Understanding the definition of value in sports betting is key to understanding how to make money when betting on sports. You bet games that you thought you were going to lose, and you came out ahead. What they are also telling you is the percentage likelihood that that rate equates to. Being profitable all comes down to the payout odds and getting a better price than you should be, which, as you already knowโ€ฆis value. Yes, this was an oversimplified example, but the premise is the same. Sports betting is NOT about picking winners; sports betting is about betting value. The higher the actual probability, the more value there is, and the more excited you should be about placing that bet. In simpler terms, betting any value bet will make you money over time. However, if that is the way they are personally measuring their success, then they have an issue. Is there value there? What you want to be looking at and what your friend should be looking at is their Return on Investment ROI. Some bettors like to shy away from bets that are way too close to a toss-up. The first is the less mathematical way, which may be a good fit for some of you. In our above example, you could have lost six games in a row and still turned a profit. It would look something like this. Not really, at least in the sense we are talking about. What you can do is assess the game, take everything that you normally do to predict a winner into account, and instead of trying to figure out a final score prediction or an outcome of just that game, look at the two teams as if they were playing a series. As expected, you break exactly even. Before we go any further, we need to break down a concept known as implied probability. To collect their money, they are paying bets out slightly more likely than what they actually think the probability is. For a lot of people, this is a bit of a surprising fact. When a sportsbook puts out a betting money line, they are telling you how much you will get paid for placing that bet. But what happens when the sportsbook is wrong, and you win the bet a different percentage of the time? This is why we recommend that you read the guide from start to finish. Some of you may be thinking that we only showed examples where the bettor bet favorites. You come up with a list of criteria you think will affect the outcome of the game, and then you apply numerical values and weights to each. Here is what your profit and loss look like below. This percentage likelihood is known as the implied probability. This money line will be the amount you should get paid if things are fair. One of these situations is when the person or team is a huge favorite or underdog. Do you think they would win 6 of 10? Another perk of the converter is that it will allow you to convert probabilities back into money lines. The other 99 timesโ€ฆyou are losing. Now you figure out what percentage of the total each score is. You feel like the team is going to lose. Like the good student you are, you calculate out the implied probability from the sportsbook line, and you find that translates to This means that the sportsbook assumes Brock is going to win this fight You think that there is a very small chance that he could get excited in the ring, trip, and knock himself out. Converting your feelings on a game or a bet into numbers can be a challenge. This is why you get paid out much better when you pick an individual like a NASCAR driver or golfer to win a competition. That is MUCH more appealing and makes it much easier to realize your equity than 1 out of every Again, in theory, the bet still has value. Let that sink in for a second. The answer is that if you are always making bets with good value, you will hit the games in the variance cycle often enough to turn a profit and reap your rewards. Basically, over time this will all even out, and you will realize your value. We mentioned in the opening of this guide that you could tell a sports bettor had no idea what they were doing if they gave you their results and successes in terms of wins and losses. Again, theoretically speaking, betting all bets where you find value is a long-term positive expected value play. The point we are trying to make here is that the further you get away from zero the bigger the favorites or underdogs , the less appealing big discrepancies in value are. Both of these situations are technically still going to be winners long-term, but whether you want to bet them or not will come down to your strategy. You have to remember that what you figure for your predicted actual probability is how often that bet is going to win assuming you are correct, of course. Sometimes the first game will be the win, and sometimes it will be a loss. The only difference in the computations is that when you add up the total scores, you will add up the scores of everyone competing. Sometimes, this means even betting on teams that you think are going to lose. The math lovers are already building their formula in an Excel spreadsheet, and the rest of us are trying to make our series predictions. There are a few ways that you can approach this. If the sportsbook is correct, you should break even on this bet. You ask your friend to tell you how much they bet on each game, and most importantly, what odds they were getting. ROI shows exactly how much money you are making in relation to how much you have put in.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} Well, split the difference at 4. You can confirm that your friend did, in fact, go , but you should also figure out their profit and loss from each game and add it to the chart. In other words, the above cycle is not always going to be all losses first, and then all wins. In oversimplified terms, sports betting value is when you find a bet that is paying out winners at a better rate than it should. Remember, sportsbooks will pay you out more money when something is less likely to happen. You now have to assign how important you think each is as a percentage out of Speed: 7 Bench: 4 Coaching: 8 Team B Speed: 4 Bench: 5 Coaching: 7 Now what you need to do is use these variables to create a formula that you can plug your values into. You can have a winning record as a sports bettor and still be losing money. So now you understand that you need to find value, and that the two key figures you need are the implied probability which you can get from the money line at the sportsbook and the predicted actual probability which you have to develop yourself. This is extra value. Remember, the more likely a bet is to happen, the less they will pay out on it. But, as we stated before, there are times where you may want to shy away from bets, even though they offer you value. You press for more, though. Please try your best to get through it! {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}If a friend tells you they are sports betting, is your friend a successful sports bettor? This is how they make their money. The bigger the discrepancy between what you think the probability is and what the line says the probability is, the more money you stand to make. You can use this to calculate the percent chance that you think a team will win a game, and then convert that into the money line. Take these and convert them into money line bets, and you can now see if there is value on either side of the bet. That being said, huge discrepancies are hard to come by. If you ever need to figure out the true implied probability without the sportsbook juice, calculate the percentages, and then figure them as a percentage of the total percentages paid out. Are they profitable? This should be the lightbulb and aha moment where you start to see sports betting from a whole other perspective. Wait, what? To do that, you total up the score by adding 6. Yes, this is an insanely exaggerated example. You think that team speed is the most important, and then bench depth is slightly less important, and then coaching staff is slightly less important than that. How many would each team win? The sportsbook feels this is the fair rate for this bet. Thanks to our calculator, you know how to do the first, but we want to cover the second number now. The job is paying you fairly what you think you deserve. From a practical, standpointโ€ฆcome onnnnn, man. Your friend reports back with the five games they bet and who they picked. Keeping all of that in mind, you may want to shy away from games where the value is extremely close. The same reigns true with underdogs. For most people, though, this will be overkill and not necessary. From a theoretical standpoint, yes. Sometimes highly skilled and intelligent people will alter their reporting methods to fit their audience. The other approach you can take to this is creating a formula that calculates everything for you. The fact still remains true.